How Screwed Am I? Week 4 Edition
Analyzing 150,000+ teams from last season to see how cooked your team might be this season
Mike
2 time league playoff participant
A few questions I usually found myself asking around this time of the fantasy season are:
"How screwed is my team?"
"Should I throw in the towel and try to set myself up for success next year?"
"Should I get a hobby that doesn't make me consistently angry? I've heard gardening is nice..."
I pulled in data from 150,000+ 2024 fantasy teams to determine probabilities of making the playoffs, and then those playoff teams winning the championship. This data is aggregated across all teams so there are different league sizes, scoring settings, etc. We'll get into more detailed slices later but at a high level, here's what your chances look like.
Record | Playoff Probability | Championship Rate (If Made Playoffs) |
|---|---|---|
0-4 | 10.9% | 11.9% |
1-3 | 30.4% | 12.8% |
2-2 | 55.5% | 14.6% |
3-1 | 78.1% | 17.9% |
4-0 | 92.3% | 22.5% |
The biggest thing that sticks out to me here is 30.4% of 1-3 teams making the playoffs. If I'm at 1-3 right now, I'm probably in full panic mode but the chances of getting into the playoffs aren't as bad as I might have thought.
To put it in baseball terms, a batting average of .304 would be good for fifth in major league baseball this season.
I'm making this connection because 1-3 teams need a mental reframing of their season. When any of these guys step up to the plate against your team, your thought isn't "Haha! There's a 70% chance he doesn't hit this!". No, you're thinking "Oh my god, we are about to get cooked right here."
If you're 1-3, reframe it as a batting average to make yourself feel better. If you're 0-4, even a baseball comparison won't help you. Things aren't looking great out here for you.
Sankeys
The charts below may be helpful in visualizing the Level Of Screwed you are.
This is....grim.
We just might be ok...
More than 50% made the playoffs!
These teams need no encouragement, looking good.
These teams need to be brought back to Earth. You most likely won't win the championship!
Like most things in life, your specific circumstances may make your odds better or worse than what is presented above. If you're 3-1 but you have Malik Nabers, your playoff chances may be less than 76%.
On that note, I looked up which players are most represented on teams at each record. You'll see some overlap in teams here -- for instance, Puka is consistently rostered across the best performing teams. I pulled in 5 players for 4-0 and 0-4 and three for the other records.
Record | Player | Roster Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
4-0 | Puka Nacua | 21.3% | |
4-0 | James Cook | 16.3% | |
4-0 | Christian McCaffrey | 15.8% | |
4-0 | Bijan Robinson | 15.4% | |
4-0 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 15.3% |
Record | Player | Roster Rate |
|---|---|---|
3-1 | Puka Nacua | 12% |
3-1 | Jonathan Taylor | 11.2% |
3-1 | James Cook | 11% |
Record | Player | Roster Rate |
|---|---|---|
2-2 | Derrick Henry | 8.5% |
2-2 | Keenan Allen | 8.4% |
2-2 | Malik Nabers | 8.4% |
Record | Player | Roster Rate |
|---|---|---|
1-3 | Joe Burrow | 9.1% |
1-3 | Ladd McConkey | 9% |
1-3 | Chase Brown | 8.9% |
(Tee Higgins is the #5 player on 1-3 teams, meaning Bengals have 3 of the top 5 slots. Their entire team has been a disaster for fantasy.)
Record | Player | Roster Rate |
|---|---|---|
0-4 | Joe Burrow | 12.4% |
0-4 | Travis Hunter | 10% |
0-4 | Matthew Golden | 9.9% |
0-4 | Ladd McConkey | 9.7% |
0-4 | Brian Thomas Jr | 9.5% |
Matthew Golden is a strange one here -- maybe with both him and Travis Hunter, managers reached for promising rookies in the draft that haven't panned out so far.
Breaking Out by League Size
For anyone that wants a more detailed look at odds depending on league size, see the tables below:
Record | League Size | Playoff Probability | Championship Rate (If Made Playoffs) |
|---|---|---|---|
0-4 | 8 | 15.3% | 13.9% |
1-3 | 8 | 38.4% | 16.6% |
2-2 | 8 | 58.2% | 18.5% |
3-1 | 8 | 78.9% | 22.7% |
4-0 | 8 | 91.6% | 25.5% |
Record | League Size | Playoff Probability | Championship Rate (If Made Playoffs) |
|---|---|---|---|
0-4 | 10 | 15.2% | 11.9% |
1-3 | 10 | 35.9% | 12.7% |
2-2 | 10 | 61.1% | 14.8% |
3-1 | 10 | 82.3% | 18.9% |
4-0 | 10 | 94.4% | 23.5% |
Record | League Size | Playoff Probability | Championship Rate (If Made Playoffs) |
|---|---|---|---|
0-4 | 12 | 8.5% | 11.6% |
1-3 | 12 | 27.0% | 12.5% |
2-2 | 12 | 52.7% | 14.2% |
3-1 | 12 | 76.3% | 17.0% |
4-0 | 12 | 91.5% | 22.2% |
Record | League Size | Playoff Probability | Championship Rate (If Made Playoffs) |
|---|---|---|---|
0-4 | 14 | 9.0% | 12.4% |
1-3 | 14 | 24.7% | 10.8% |
2-2 | 14 | 48.0% | 13.5% |
3-1 | 14 | 70.9% | 16.2% |
4-0 | 14 | 88.8% | 17.5% |
I hope this data made you feel better about your chances this season. And if not, maybe it made you feel better that your enemy's chances still aren't great even if they're 4-0!
