How Screwed Am I? Week 5 Edition
Analyzing 150,000+ teams from last season to see how cooked your team might be this season
Mike
2 time league playoff participant
I tend to be a bit of an Eeyore when it comes to fantasy football. Woe is me, I have the worst luck, all my guys are injured, I'll blow it in the playoffs, etc. You know...the kind of guy that everyone loves being around. Basically Randy Quaid from Major League 2.
Sometimes I'm right! Sometimes my team truly is cooked. But because my brain always tells me I'm 100% cooked, I decided to start the "How Screwed Am I?" series to determine with data how morose I have a right to be.
I pulled in data from 150,000+ 2024 fantasy teams to determine probabilities of making the playoffs, and then those playoff teams winning the championship. This data is aggregated across all teams so there are different league sizes, scoring settings, etc. We'll get into more detailed slices later but at a high level, here's what your chances look like.
Record | Playoff Probability | Championship Rate (If Made Playoffs) |
|---|---|---|
0-5 | 4.9% | 11.3% |
1-4 | 18.6% | 11.1% |
2-3 | 42.4% | 12.4% |
3-2 | 68.5% | 15.7% |
4-1 | 87.5% | 19.6% |
5-0 | 96.6% | 26.3% |
A reader from last week mentioned it'd be interesting to look at the splits for each record depending on the result of their next matchup. In other words, your team is 1-4 and your playoff chances are 18%. How will that change if you win next week? The below table shows each record and how things change depending on your result this week.
Record | Playoff Probability | With Week 6 Loss | With Week 6 Win | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0-5 | 4.9% | 2.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% |
1-4 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 29.6% | 19.6% |
2-3 | 42.4% | 29.6% | 55.9% | 26.3% |
3-2 | 68.5% | 55.9% | 80.0% | 24.1% |
4-1 | 87.5% | 80.0% | 93.5% | 13.5% |
5-0 | 96.6% | 93.5% | 98.6% | 5.1% |
The final column here "diff" tells us who can have the biggest impact on their chances. Congrats 2-3 managers, in this very narrow sense, you're in the lead! Massive gap between being 2-4 and 3-3 in your odds to make the playoffs. So my advice is this: if you're currently 2-3, or really any other record, I highly recommend winning this week.
Huge Sankey
My graphic guy made preposterously large sankey that shows the splits for every current record:
Did that team make the playoffs?
If so, did they win the championship or crash out in the playoffs?
My weekly disclaimer: Like most things in life, your specific circumstances may make your odds better or worse than what is presented above. (watch as I expertly neg my own team here). If you're 3-2 but have Omarion Hampton and Bucky Irving both injured and are left scraping the bottom of the barrel for RBs, your odds may be worse.
Each week, I look up which players are most represented on teams at each record.
Record | Player | Roster Rate |
|---|---|---|
0-5 | Brian Thomas | 9.3% |
0-5 | Xavier Worthy | 9.2% |
0-5 | Tee Higgins | 9.0% |
1-4 | Joe Burrow | 9.5% |
1-4 | Ladd McConkey | 9.2% |
1-4 | TreVeyon Henderson | 9.2% |
2-3 | Ashton Jeanty | 8.3% |
2-3 | Alvin Kamara | 8.3% |
2-3 | Xavier Worthy | 8.3% |
3-2 | Jonathan Taylor | 9.0% |
3-2 | Christian McCaffrey | 9.0% |
3-2 | Courtland Sutton | 9.0% |
4-1 | Jonathan Taylor | 13.9% |
4-1 | Emeka Egbuka | 11.0% |
4-1 | Jake Ferguson | 11.0% |
5-0 | Puka Nacua | 24.0% |
5-0 | Garrett Wilson | 14.0% |
5-0 | James Cook | 13.6% |
Has there been a bigger disappointment in fantasy than Brian Thomas this season?
Kind of just good enough to where you keep playing him because he's due. I'm thankful that I wasn't good enough last year to pick him up because this is what's happening to all of his managers this season.
Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this, don't forget to subscribe to get this weekly series delivered straight to your inbox.
-Mike
